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Links 1 through 10 of 33 by Stuart Henshall tagged scenarios

Some of the worst rah rah on what the future will be like I've seen in years. I once liked this magazine.

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What are the biggest dangers facing companies? In a world of rapid change and unexpected events there’s a significant danger that we fall into a reactive mode, simply sensing and responding to the latest developments and scrambling to keep up. Our horizons shrink and we lose any sight of longer-term trends and opportunities. The result is that we spread ourselves much too thinly across too many initiatives and increase the likelihood that we will get blind-sided by longer trends that appear to come out of left field. One key way to accelerate learning is to adopt a “zoom out, zoom in” approach. It encourages executives to look ahead 10-20 years and develop a high-level perspective, but not a detailed blueprint, of what kind of company they will need to be successful on that horizon. Then it pulls back to a 6-12 month horizon and asks, “What two or three operating initiatives appear to have the greatest potential in accelerating movement towards that longer-term destination?” Then,...

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"Strategy does not require an understanding of trends. Trends whisper promises of futures that may not come to pass. Strategy requires a confrontation and a grappling with uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to the need for multiple possible ways for those uncertainties to play out, which ultimately requires scenarios. Once an organization effectively engages with scenarios it says, “now I see, now I see,” not the answer, but the truth that it can’t possibly foretell the future, and therefore needs to practice active engagement and foresight in order to navigate the uncertain path forward." Listen to the music! This is an awesome post.

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"As a futurist, I try to think beyond the designers notes when it comes to the impacts of emerging technologies. I find that it’s often useful to imagine the unintended, seedy, improper, or illicit uses of new tools and systems. How might Invention X be hacked? How could it facilitate a user having disproportionate power over another person? How will it be used to help the user have sex? How would it enable someone to commit a crime? Thinking along those lines can help to uncover the more subtle connections between a new technology and incumbent systems, spot hidden security flaws, or even reveal markets for a product that the developer had ignored." I agree although note that this approach isn't always taken to so kindly. The challenge is to leverage potential downsides into upsides - and sometimes that is going to be hard. Still if you believe that good outweighs evil then this is possible. Although is it just and arms race?

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I'm voting for the more distributed future - although I'd define it as more intentional and personal. Do you really always want to wear a facebook T-shirt?

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it's important to provide alternate scenarios and views. Many will reject this view. I think the time frame is off. how do you see location playing out?

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I think his statements are bending it a little. A technologist with no understanding of users, behaviors and a degree of curiosity won't get anywhere. A market researcher with no understanding of technology and what's possible will also always fail. It' part of the reason I like scenarios. It combines the upstream understanding with storytelling that can perfect ideas and convert to simple concepts. It's only done well by people that are curious and inventive. It's also no wonder that rapid prototyping is important too.

"Major innovation comes from technologists who have little understanding of all this research stuff: they invent because they are inventors. They create for the same reason that people climb mountains: to demonstrate that they can do so. Most of these inventions fail, but the ones that succeed change our lives."

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“Social networking is not delivering on the need for intimacy that people have in their daily life,” he warns. In a world of global citizens, there remains a desire for local relationships and local knowledge, he says.

...the need for people to move or travel for work, has bought with it "a desire for richer forms of digitally mediated intimacy".

... mobile communication will become both easier and more invisible. He envisages a future of multi-sensor interfaces that respond to everything from gestures to the emotion in a user's voice. "It’s about taking away the technology and making it almost real," says Korkman.

Social networks such as Twitter and Facebook are fundamentally changing the relationships and interactions between people, says Korkman. We now have multiple identities which we share with our different groups of friends and acquaintances, and this in turn has created a desire for social experiences even in the most transient of moments.

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"It took decades to pry computing out of central control and make it personal. We’re in the middle of doing the same with telephony — and everything else we can do on a hand-held device...... Today in the digital world we still have very few personal tools that work only for us, are under personal control, are NEA, and are not provided as a grace of some company or other.... tarting with the social keeps us from working on empowering individuals natively. That most of the social action is in silos and pipes of hot and/or giant companies slows things down even more. They may look impressive now, but they are a drag on the future."

This post fits perfectly with Jonathan Zitrain's work on Civil Technologies. The issue is actually much deeper than personal or social... the real problem is as we move to mobile we require more personal control and no one company wants to provide it.

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